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Is Cenovus Poised to Gain From the Current Elevation in Crude Prices?

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Key Takeaways

  • Cenovus generates significant upstream revenues from assets in Canada and Asia Pacific.
  • CVE is set to benefit from WTI crude prices above $100 per barrel amid Middle East tensions.
  • EIA projects 2026 WTI crude prices at $85.68 per barrel compared with $65.40 per barrel in 2025.

Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE - Free Report) has a diversified portfolio with assets spanning both upstream exploration and downstream refining. The company generates substantial revenues from its upstream operations, which are strategically spread across Canada and the Asia Pacific region. Since CVE is involved in the exploration and production of crude oil, its overall business model is highly sensitive to the volatility of global crude prices.

West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) crude prices are trading above $100 per barrel, according to oilprice.com. This significant surge in crude prices is primarily driven by the ongoing conflict and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude oil is also trading above $110 per barrel, as per oilprice.com. These elevated WTI and Brent crude prices directly enhance the profitability and earnings potential of the Canadian integrated energy company’s upstream operations.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) projects a continued favorable pricing environment in its short-term energy outlook. The EIA estimates that WTI crude prices will average $85.68 per barrel in 2026. This is significantly higher than the $65.40 per barrel recorded in 2025. The combination of robust current pricing and resilient EIA forecasts firmly positions Cenovus to capitalize on favorable market conditions.

Will FANG & XOM Gain From High Oil Prices?

Like Cenovus, Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG - Free Report) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) have a significant presence in upstream operations, exposing their business models to crude price volatility.  

Diamondback Energy operates as a premier, Permian-focused independent oil and gas producer in Texas. FANG focuses on multi-layered intervals in the Spraberry, Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations, maximizing production through advanced horizontal drilling and high-intensity completion techniques.

ExxonMobil drives growth through a geographically diversified, high-quality asset base. XOM has advantaged assets in the Permian Basin, the most prolific basin in the United States and offshore Guyana.

Therefore, a strong footprint in upstream operations, coupled with elevated crude prices, is likely to benefit FANG and XOM.

CVE’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Cenovus shares have gained 139.8% over the past year compared with 109.8% growth of the industry.

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From a valuation standpoint, CVE trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise-value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 7.79X. This is below the broader industry average of 8.15X.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVE’s 2026 earnings has remained constant over the past seven days.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

CVE currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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